中國務實外交戰略的目的和效果

中華人民共和國自建國以來，就是以馬列主義、毛澤東思想為指導理論 的意識形態國家，然而意識形態不是任何時候都左右了中國的外交戰略的。 當意識形態在中國的內政、外交上處於主導位置時，通常不會出現務實 的外交戰略。但是當國家陷於政權的生存、鞏固和安全的危機時，就會出現例 外。 當國家總體戰略是以經濟建設為中心，強調發展經濟，意識形態相對淡化時，務實外交戰略就大行其道。 就中國的務實外交戰略的本質而言，中國本國的國家利益仍然是指導中 國外交戰略的最高原則，其務實的本質與國際政治學理論中的實在主義並無根本的不同。然而，毛澤東時代與鄧小平時代實行務實外交戰略是有不同的，前者僅是外交戰略中的例外，後者則是常規，而非例外。 不論在毛澤東時代還是在鄧小平時代，務實外交戰略在特定的時代背景下都得到了淋漓盡致的展現。前者為中國鞏固新生政權和化解國家安全危機起 到了根本性的作用。後者?中國的社會主義現代化建設爭取了二十多年的和平環境，使中國的經濟得以維持了二十多年的持續高速增長，使中華民族的偉大復興出現了曙光

Performance of post-processing algorithms for rainfall intensity using measurements from tipping-bucket rain gauges

Abstract. Eight rainfall events recorded from May to September 2013 at Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) have been selected to investigate the performance of post-processing algorithms used to calculate the rainfall intensity (RI) from tipping-bucket rain gauges (TBRGs). We assumed a drop-counter catching-type gauge as a working reference and compared rainfall intensity measurements with two calibrated TBRGs operated at a time resolution of 1 min. The two TBRGs differ in their internal mechanics, one being a traditional single-layer dual-bucket assembly, while the other has two layers of buckets. The drop-counter gauge operates at a time resolution of 10 s, while the time of tipping is recorded for the two TBRGs. The post-processing algorithms employed for the two TBRGs are based on the assumption that the tip volume is uniformly distributed over the inter-tip period. A series of data of an ideal TBRG is reconstructed using the virtual time of tipping derived from the drop-counter data. From the comparison between the ideal gauge and the measurements from the two real TBRGs, the performances of different post-processing and correction algorithms are statistically evaluated over the set of recorded rain events. The improvement obtained by adopting the inter-tip time algorithm in the calculation of the RI is confirmed. However, by comparing the performance of the real and ideal TBRGs, the beneficial effect of the inter-tip algorithm is shown to be relevant for the mid–low range (6–50 mmh−1) of rainfall intensity values (where the sampling errors prevail), while its role vanishes with increasing RI in the range where the mechanical errors prevail

Laboratory assessment of two catching type drop-counting rain gauges.

This study reports the results of laboratory tests performed to assess the performance of three drop counting rain gauges of the catching type , and to propose suitable correction so as to make them compliant with the specifications of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) at one minute time resolution for Rainfall Intensity (RI) measurements. The tests were limited to the steady state conditions, with known and constant flow rates provided to the instrument at various reference intensities for a sufficient period of time, in order to compare the measures provided by the gauge with the reference figures (which is known as dynamic calibration). The instruments investigated are manufactured by Ogawa Seiki Co. Ltd (Japan) and the Chilbolton RAL (UK). They are designed as high-sensitivity drop counter type rain gauges. Using a suitable correction algorithm, based on calibration curves as obtained from the tests performed in the laboratory, it is possible to improve the accuracy of the three instruments and to obtain results that are fully compatible with the WMO required measurement uncertainty provided in the CIMO guide (WMO, Pub. No 8), although only within the acceptable measurement ranges. The laboratory tests were performed under known and constant flow rates in closely controlled conditions, according to the recommended procedures developed during the WMO Laboratory Intercomparison of RI gauges and recommended by WMO. The performance in the field may be lower than those observed in the laboratory, due to errors induced by the atmospheric conditions, installation, status of maintenance, etc

Urban Building Energy and Climate (UrBEC) simulation: Example application and field evaluation in Sai Ying Pun, Hong Kong

The energy performance of a building in a dense city depends to some extent on its surroundings. The impact of the built form, together with anthropogenic heat gains from traffic and building HVAC exhaust, determines external environmental conditions at the Urban Canopy Layer. Existing building energy models are limited in accounting for micro-scale variations of the urban microclimate, which may significantly modify a building's energy performance in density cities. This paper presents the Urban Building Energy and Climate (UrBEC) model, a coupled urban microclimate model (UMM) and building energy model (HTB2) developed to assess the time varying energy performance of a cluster of buildings and the combined heat gains to the external space from direct and reflected solar radiation, traffic and the exhaust from HVAC systems in a high-density city. The simulation results were evaluated by comparison with field measurement data collected from the Sai Ying Pun neighbourhood in Hong Kong, on a summer and winter day. Predicted and measured air and surface temperature at the four locations were found to be in reasonable agreement. Simulation results indicate an average of 1-3 ºC of temperature rise in street canyons compared with the ambient air in summer. Street level air is predicted to be 0.6 ºC warmer than those at higher levels (20m +). Anthropogenic heat from traffic and building HVAC exhaust are the dominant contributors to temperature rise in street canyons in summer, exceeding the contribution from urban surfaces. The predicted building cooling demand is expected to increase up to 15 % in summer due to the warming effect in street canyons. The UrBEC model runs significantly faster than current CFD-based approaches. Therefore, the model has the potential to support early stage design and planning decisions in a dense city

On the identification of weather avoidance routes in the terminal maneuvering area of Hong Kong International Airport

The safety and efficiency of air traffic are significantly affected by adverse weather. This holds especially in terminal maneuvering areas (TMA) where, in addition to the impact of weather itself, potential weather avoidance routes are strongly restricted by air traffic regulations. A weather avoidance model DIVMET has been developed which proposes a route through a field of developing thunderstorms. Air traffic control regulations have not been included in it at this stage. DIVMET was applied to the TMA of Hong Kong International Airport as air traffic control (ATC) there has become interested in improving the controller’s work load, especially for managing incoming traffic by avoidance route simulations. Although visual inspection of simulated avoidance routes by ATC was satisfactory, a quantitative validation of simulated with real observed routes was also carried out. Two real adverse weather situations with thunderstorms within the TMA of Hong Kong and with heavily distorted traffic were chosen. The main objective prior to any validation, however, was to identify routes which are solely impacted by weather but do not show any signs of regulation. Route selection was done on the base of flight position data. Landing flights were selected and deviations from standard approach routes were analyzed. As a result, the majority of 272 flights were found to be affected by both weather and regulations (60%), highlighting the challenge for air traffic controllers to manage landing traffic under adverse weather conditions safely and efficiently. Only a few weather-affected flights (7%) were not regulated and could be used for validation. DIVMET simulation routes were presented to local air traffic controllers who confirmed them as potential and realistic avoidance routes. DIVMET weather avoidance route simulations within a TMA appear to be helpful but further model development has to incorporate traffic regulations, to include holdings, short-cuts, and slow-downs. © 2016, Zhejiang University and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

A review of progress and applications of pulsed doppler wind LiDARs

Doppler wind LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) makes use of the principle of optical Doppler shift between the reference and backscattered radiations to measure radial velocities at distances up to several kilometers above the ground. Such instruments promise some advantages, including its large scan volume, movability and provision of 3-dimensional wind measurements, as well as its relatively higher temporal and spatial resolution comparing with other measurement devices. In recent decades, Doppler LiDARs developed by scientific institutes and commercial companies have been well adopted in several real-life applications. Doppler LiDARs are installed in about a dozen airports to study aircraft-induced vortices and detect wind shears. In the wind energy industry, the Doppler LiDAR technique provides a promising alternative to in-situ techniques in wind energy assessment, turbine wake analysis and turbine control. Doppler LiDARs have also been applied in meteorological studies, such as observing boundary layers and tracking tropical cyclones. These applications demonstrate the capability of Doppler LiDARs for measuring backscatter coefficients and wind profiles. In addition, Doppler LiDAR measurements show considerable potential for validating and improving numerical models. It is expected that future development of the Doppler LiDAR technique and data processing algorithms will provide accurate measurements with high spatial and temporal resolutions under different environmental conditions

Harmonics analysis of 130-year hourly air temperature in Hong Kong: detecting urban warming from the perspective of annual and daily cycles

The century-long search for the precise mechanisms responsible for urban heat islands continues, while urban warming worsens in many megacities. Most studies have focused on mean temperature, daily and annual temperature ranges and urban heat island intensity. We hypothesize that an analysis of the changes in the characteristics of the complete daily and annual temperature cycles, including not only the mean temperature and temperature ranges (amplitudes) but also the maximum and minimum temperatures and the phases, can provide more information on urban warming phenomena. Through a detailed analysis of long-term observations in Hong Kong, we found that the difference in the daily cycle between urban and rural stations is very distinct, whereas the annual cycles are much more similar, suggesting that the urban environment has a greater effect on the daily cycle than on the annual cycle. The daily phase has shifted a total of 1.77 hours later over the last 130 years (1.36 hours per century) in the urban area of Hong Kong according to the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) data. The annual phase change at HKO reflects the globally observed phenomenon that the annual phase advances or seasons onset earlie

Aircraft route forecasting under adverse weather conditions

In this paper storm nowcasts in the terminal manoeuvring area (TMA) of Hong Kong International Airport are used to forecast deviation routes through a field of storms for arriving and departing aircraft. Storms were observed and nowcast by the nowcast system SWIRLS from the Hong Kong Observatory. Storms were considered as no-go zones for aircraft and deviation routes were determined with the DIVSIM software package. Two days (21 and 22 May 2011) with 22 actual flown routes were investigated. Flights were simulated with a nowcast issued at the time an aircraft entered the TMA or departed from the airport. These flights were compared with a posteriori simulations, in which all storm fields were known and circumnavigated. Both types of simulated routes were then compared with the actual flown routes. The qualitative comparison of the various routes revealed generally good agreement. Larger differences were found in more complex situations with many active storms in the TMA. Route differences resulted primarily from air traffic control measures imposed such as holdings, slow-downs and shortcuts, causing the largest differences between the estimated and actual landing time. Route differences could be enhanced as aircraft might be forced to circumnavigate a storm ahead in a different sense. The use of route forecasts to assist controllers coordinating flights in a complex moving storm field is discussed. The study emphasises the important application of storm nowcasts in aviation meteorology

Roles of the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores in post-myocardial infarction patients: Risk of new occurrence of atrial fibrillation and ischemic stroke

Background: Patients with myocardial infarction (MI) are at risk of the development of atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischemic stroke. We sought to evaluate the prognostic performance of the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores in predicting new AF and/or ischemic stroke in post-ST segment elevation MI (STEMI) patients. Six hundred and seven consecutive post-STEMI patients with no previously documented AF were studied.Methods and Results: After a follow-up of 63 months (3,184 patient-years), 83 (13.7%) patients developed new AF (2.8% per year). Patients with a high CHADS2 and/or CHA2DS2-VASc score were more likely to develop new AF. The annual incidence of new AF was 1.18%, 2.10%, 4.52%, and 7.03% in patients with CHADS2 of 0, 1, 2, and ≥ 3; and 0.39%, 1.72%, 1.83%, and 5.83% in patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 1, 2, 3 and ≥ 4. The CHA2DS2-VASc score (C-statistic = 0.676) was superior to the CHADS2 (C-statistic = 0.632) for discriminating new AF. Ischemic stroke occurred in 29 patients (0.9% per year), the incidence increasing in line with the CHADS2 (0.41%, 1.02%, 1.11%, and 1.95% with score of 0, 1, 2, and ≥ 3) and CHA2DS2-VASc scores (0.39%, 0.49%, 1.02%, and 1.48% with score of 1, 2, 3 and ≥ 4). The C-statistic of the CHA2DS2-VASc score as a predictor of ischemic stroke was 0.601, superior to that of CHADS2 score (0.573). CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores can identify post-STEMI patients at high risk of AF and stroke.Conclusions: The CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores can identify post-STEMI patients at high risk of AF and ischemic stroke. This enables close surveillance and prompt anticoagulation for stroke prevention